TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084957
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111412611118811
Bohuslav Budik
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBohuslav Budik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Bohuslav Budik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Bohuslav Budik at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 27–23 Bohuslav Budik Bohuslav Budik has won 23 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-23 in 50
Hnizdil
Wrong
gap of 4 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1578 vs Budik 1609
Budik
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 60% vs Budik 80%
Budik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 70% vs Budik 90%
Budik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil -1 · Budik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.57 / Budik 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hnizdil)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13084957
Hnizdil1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite66% won 44 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Budik2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHnizdil5wins
AwayBudik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil60%3 of 5
AwayBudik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil5Budik5n = 10split evenly
S2Hnizdil4Budik6n = 10Budik took 6 of 10
S3Hnizdil4Budik6n = 10Budik took 6 of 10
S4Hnizdil4Budik3n = 7Hnizdil took 4 of 7
S5Hnizdil3Budik2n = 5Hnizdil took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHnizdilBudikH − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.639.9−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilBudikBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 255 vs 222 / 50257.3%44.2%146 / 255 vs 222 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.57/Budik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Budik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 09:35T. Hnizdil—8890B. Budik—1111113
LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil—91461182B. Budik—1112118113
LSep 5 · 10:50T. Hnizdil—11512672B. Budik—9111011113
WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil—1111911113B. Budik—91311872
WJul 27 · 12:50T. Hnizdil—116115113B. Budik—21151192
WJul 23 · 12:50T. Hnizdil—101111113B. Budik—129751
WJul 22 · 10:33T. Hnizdil—812911113B. Budik—111011762
LJul 22 · 09:25T. Hnizdil—1178131B. Budik—51111153
LMar 16 · 11:23T. Hnizdil—5680B. Budik—1111113
WMar 16 · 09:55T. Hnizdil—1111113B. Budik—9940
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872LSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572
B. Budik10
WSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890LSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113LSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672LSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872WSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690WSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113WSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060
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