TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080361
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191113911118117
Bohuslav Budik
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:21 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Bohuslav Budik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 101 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 59.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 26–20 Bohuslav Budik Bohuslav Budik has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-20 in 46
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1574 vs Budik 1623
Budik
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 60% vs Budik 100%
Budik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 70% vs Budik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil -1 · Budik +5
Budik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.57 / Budik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Hnizdil)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13080361
Hnizdil1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 38 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Budik2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 63 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back32% 24 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHnizdil6wins
AwayBudik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil66.7%4 of 6
AwayBudik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil6Budik4n = 10Hnizdil took 6 of 10
S2Hnizdil4Budik6n = 10Budik took 6 of 10
S3Hnizdil5Budik5n = 10split evenly
S4Hnizdil4Budik2n = 6Hnizdil took 4 of 6
S5Hnizdil2Budik1n = 3Hnizdil took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHnizdilBudikH − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.934.7+3.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilBudikBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 245 vs 219 / 49657.6%44.2%141 / 245 vs 219 / 496Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.57/Budik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 12:50T. Hnizdil—116115113B. Budik—21151192
WJul 23 · 12:50T. Hnizdil—101111113B. Budik—129751
WJul 22 · 10:33T. Hnizdil—812911113B. Budik—111011762
LJul 22 · 09:25T. Hnizdil—1178131B. Budik—51111153
LMar 16 · 11:23T. Hnizdil—5680B. Budik—1111113
WMar 16 · 09:55T. Hnizdil—1111113B. Budik—9940
LMar 15 · 14:25T. Hnizdil—8890B. Budik—1111113
WMar 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil—11711113B. Budik—311781
WFeb 12 · 09:20T. Hnizdil—1414113B. Budik—121250
LSep 21 · 08:55T. Hnizdil—11691192B. Budik—611114113
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672LSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572
B. Budik10
WSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890LSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113LSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113WSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690WSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113WSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060
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