Jaroslav Dohnal vs Tomas Hnizdil 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13085079

Played Sep 6Finished

Jaroslav Dohnal

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 4

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1513711611811––

Tomas Hnizdil

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Tomas Hnizdil to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

pick shipped

How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Tomas Hnizdil below

Set 1 · 15-13

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 8-11

Point 82 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 55.8%

82 points played in total.

H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 8–9 Tomas Hnizdil Jaroslav Dohnal has won 8 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 23:28

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Hnizdil

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

8-9 in 17

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Dohnal 1515 vs Hnizdil 1566

Hnizdil

Correct

both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Dohnal 80% vs Hnizdil 40%

Dohnal

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Dohnal 70% vs Hnizdil 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Dohnal +4 · Hnizdil -2

Dohnal

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hnizdil)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hnizdil form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDohnal 2.10 / Hnizdil 1.67

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Hnizdil)+0.0pp

TT Cup · #13085079

Dohnal2.10

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog46% won 12 of 26

Down 0–1, comes back31% 4 of 13

Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6

Hnizdil1.67

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite67% won 40 of 60

Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22

Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDohnal4wins

AwayHnizdil6wins

5 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDohnal60%3 of 5

AwayHnizdil80%4 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Dohnal5Hnizdil5n = 10split evenly

S2Dohnal6Hnizdil4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10

S3Dohnal4Hnizdil6n = 10Hnizdil took 6 of 10

S4Dohnal3Hnizdil5n = 8Hnizdil took 5 of 8

S5Dohnal2Hnizdil3n = 5Hnizdil took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricDohnalHnizdilD − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.941.8−2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDohnalHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 684 vs 142 / 24859.5%57.3%407 / 684 vs 142 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.737.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Hnizdil

Dohnal 2.10/Hnizdil 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

55.8%

Hnizdil · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Hnizdil won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LApr 12 · 10:50J. Dohnal—71161182T. Hnizdil—116117113

LApr 6 · 12:55J. Dohnal—11691192T. Hnizdil—511118113

LFeb 15 · 13:50J. Dohnal—311711T. Hnizdil—1191183

WFeb 14 · 14:55J. Dohnal—111129103T. Hnizdil—117101192

LFeb 14 · 14:25J. Dohnal—101070T. Hnizdil—1212113

LJan 31 · 07:55J. Dohnal—11911542T. Hnizdil—911511113

WAug 31 · 10:30J. Dohnal—111111123T. Hnizdil—3137101

WAug 31 · 07:25J. Dohnal—1111179123T. Hnizdil—891911102

WAug 10 · 09:10J. Dohnal—1111113T. Hnizdil—9990

LJul 27 · 07:40J. Dohnal—311791T. Hnizdil—11711113

J. Dohnal10

WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192 WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131 WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962 WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113 WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113 LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193 WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123 WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113 WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132 LSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113

T. Hnizdil10

LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113 WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143 WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113 WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112 LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890 LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192 LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113 LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672 WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872 LSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572

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