TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071356
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611911511––
Dominik Pasek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Dominik Pasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:41What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1406 vs Pasek 1441
Pasek
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 60% vs Pasek 40%
Dohnal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 40% vs Pasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -1 · Pasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.80 / Pasek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dohnal)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13071356
Dohnal1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 117 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 54 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it69% 79 of 115
Pasek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 8 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalPasekBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 678 vs 44 / 10359.4%42.7%403 / 678 vs 44 / 103Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.80/Pasek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pasek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
D. Pasek10
LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251WAug 9 · 10:00D. Pasek2.501211123J. Dvorak1.50109100LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek2.509131151J. Kulveit1.5011157113WJun 21 · 10:00D. Pasek1.9151111113D. Vojna1.80115981LJun 21 · 09:25D. Pasek2.00711991A. Kral1.7311911113
Upcoming Matches
J. Dohnal
Nothing scheduled
D. Pasek
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