TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071413
Played Sep 3Finished
Dominik Pasek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412711711911––
Adam Kral
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingDominik Pasek above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 58.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pasek 4–5 Adam Kral Dominik Pasek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pasek 1441 vs Kral 1496
Kral
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pasek 60% vs Kral 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pasek 50% vs Kral 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pasek +1 · Kral -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPasek 2.20 / Kral 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kral)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13071413
Pasek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 8 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Kral1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 63 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it70% 42 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePasek4wins
AwayKral5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKral leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePasek75%3 of 4
AwayKral80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pasek4Kral5n = 9Kral took 5 of 9
S2Pasek5Kral4n = 9Pasek took 5 of 9
S3Pasek4Kral5n = 9Kral took 5 of 9
S4Pasek2Kral5n = 7Kral took 5 of 7
S5Pasek2Kral1n = 3Pasek took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPasekKralP − KBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match36.241.2−5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPasekKralBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 104 vs 404 / 77443.3%52.2%45 / 104 vs 404 / 774Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralPasek 2.20/Kral 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJun 21 · 09:25D. Pasek—711991A. Kral—11911113
LMay 24 · 22:30D. Pasek—8131041A. Kral—111112113
LMay 24 · 19:55D. Pasek—11125442A. Kral—9101111113
WFeb 13 · 22:50D. Pasek—711611113A. Kral—11511792
LFeb 1 · 19:00D. Pasek—5670A. Kral—1111113
LFeb 1 · 16:55D. Pasek—3111141A. Kral—11139113
WDec 30 · 22:25D. Pasek—111111163A. Kral—7137141
WNov 16 · 21:25D. Pasek—1111113A. Kral—8990
WAug 31 · 07:50D. Pasek—117113123A. Kral—611711102
D. Pasek10
WSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251WAug 9 · 10:00D. Pasek2.501211123J. Dvorak1.50109100LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek2.509131151J. Kulveit1.5011157113WJun 21 · 10:00D. Pasek1.9151111113D. Vojna1.80115981
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113LSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
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