TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058339
Played Sep 1Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118911811––
Adam Kral
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 61.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 1–7 Adam Kral Frantisek Balcar has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Kral
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1511 vs Kral 1475
Balcar
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 80% vs Kral 40%
Balcar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 80% vs Kral 40%
Balcar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +1 · Kral -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 2.50 / Kral 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kral)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13058339
Balcar2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 42 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Kral1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 61 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 41 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBalcar1wins
AwayKral7wins
4 of 8 to a deciderKral leads 7–1, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcarn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKral85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar1Kral7n = 8Kral took 7 of 8
S2Balcar4Kral4n = 8split evenly
S3Balcar4Kral4n = 8split evenly
S4Balcar2Kral3n = 5Kral took 3 of 5
S5Balcar0Kral4n = 4Kral took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricBalcarKralB − KBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match36.242.4−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarKralBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 225 vs 403 / 77447.1%52.1%106 / 225 vs 403 / 774Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralBalcar 2.50/Kral 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 6 · 18:05F. Balcar—611121192A. Kral—1171013113
WJul 6 · 15:55F. Balcar—31111113A. Kral—117791
LApr 21 · 11:20F. Balcar—98100A. Kral—1111123
LMar 31 · 21:25F. Balcar—121111772A. Kral—145811113
LMar 10 · 13:50F. Balcar—89111152A. Kral—111188113
LDec 6 · 12:50F. Balcar—11116892A. Kral—891111113
LDec 6 · 09:50F. Balcar—29130A. Kral—1111153
LDec 3 · 11:50F. Balcar—34100A. Kral—1111123
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113LSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
A. Kral
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