TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12282193
Played Jul 22Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1152111210711117
Petr Chlumsky
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 2–0 Petr Chlumsky Petr Chlumsky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:18What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Balcar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1512 vs Chlumsky 1478
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 100% vs Chlumsky 60%
Balcar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 60% vs Chlumsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +5 · Chlumsky +1
Balcar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Balcar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 1.67 / Chlumsky 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Balcar)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12282193
Balcar1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 29 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it64% 16 of 25
Chlumsky2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 22 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBalcar2wins
AwayChlumsky0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBalcar leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBalcarChlumskyB − CBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.540.0+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 231 vs 147 / 31748.1%46.4%111 / 231 vs 147 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarBalcar 1.67/Chlumsky 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar—112127113P. Chlumsky—511101172
WJul 22 · 11:55F. Balcar—91111113P. Chlumsky—119971
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
P. Chlumsky
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