TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073925
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91115131191412––
Martin Filipek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 94 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 72.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 4–0 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Chlumsky
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1439 vs Filipek 1496
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 20% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 40% vs Filipek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky -1 · Filipek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.50 / Filipek 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Chlumsky)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13073925
Chlumsky1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 17 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Filipek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChlumsky4wins
AwayFilipek0wins
Chlumsky leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumsky100%3 of 3
AwayFilipekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky3Filipek1n = 4Chlumsky took 3 of 4
S2Chlumsky3Filipek1n = 4Chlumsky took 3 of 4
S3Chlumsky4Filipek0n = 4Chlumsky took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricChlumskyFilipekC − FBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.027.8+10.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 296 vs 256 / 58546%43.8%136 / 296 vs 256 / 585Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.50/Filipek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 4 · 14:05P. Chlumsky—1311113M. Filipek—11750
WMay 4 · 12:25P. Chlumsky—61111113M. Filipek—118781
WNov 3 · 09:25P. Chlumsky—11711113M. Filipek—711551
WSep 20 · 11:55P. Chlumsky—1611113M. Filipek—14570
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891
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