TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12310128
Played Jul 27Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119116––––
Filip Marat
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched — 71.4% is still 71.4%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
71.4%
71.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 71.4%
61 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 13–5 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Chlumsky
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1465 vs Marat 1400
Chlumsky
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 20% vs Marat 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 40% vs Marat 20%
Chlumsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky -3 · Marat -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.73 / Marat 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Chlumsky)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12310128
Chlumsky1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Marat2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 56 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back36% 28 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back23% 9 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlumsky8wins
AwayMarat2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumsky100%5 of 5
AwayMarat40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Chlumsky9Marat1n = 10Chlumsky took 9 of 10
S3Chlumsky6Marat4n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S4Chlumsky2Marat3n = 5Marat took 3 of 5
S5Chlumsky4Marat1n = 5Chlumsky took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlumskyMaratC − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.7+4.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 320 vs 232 / 52946.3%43.9%148 / 320 vs 232 / 529Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.73/Marat 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—4111111113F. Marat—11691372
WJul 22 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—1211118153F. Marat—1051311132
LMay 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky—5990F. Marat—1111113
WApr 10 · 10:00P. Chlumsky—1511133F. Marat—139110
WApr 10 · 06:55P. Chlumsky—1111113F. Marat—9780
LMar 23 · 14:25P. Chlumsky—311811102F. Marat—115117123
WMar 12 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—713118123F. Marat—1111511102
WMar 11 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—913811113F. Marat—111111772
WJan 14 · 10:55P. Chlumsky—1211113F. Marat—10710
WJan 14 · 09:55P. Chlumsky—1111113F. Marat—9650
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852LJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372
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