TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457505
Played Aug 19Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
141211811131012311
Filip Marat
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 105 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Filip Marat at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 8–21 Filip Marat Martin Filipek has won 8 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:42What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Marat
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-21 in 29
Marat
Correct
gap of 13 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1541 vs Marat 1470
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 40% vs Marat 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 50% vs Marat 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek -2 · Marat -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marat)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 2.10 / Marat 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marat)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12457505
Filipek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 89 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Marat1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 32 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek3wins
AwayMarat7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarat leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek40%2 of 5
AwayMarat80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Filipek4Marat6n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S3Filipek4Marat6n = 10Marat took 6 of 10
S4Filipek4Marat4n = 8split evenly
S5Filipek0Marat3n = 3Marat took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekMaratF − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.743.2−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 570 vs 237 / 53843.9%44.1%250 / 570 vs 237 / 538Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaratFilipek 2.10/Marat 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marat · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek—9540F. Marat—1111113
WJul 20 · 14:25M. Filipek—111310123F. Marat—81112101
LJul 20 · 12:55M. Filipek—991161F. Marat—11118113
LJul 17 · 09:58M. Filipek—91180F. Marat—1113113
WJul 17 · 07:55M. Filipek—81211113F. Marat—1110861
LJun 17 · 12:25M. Filipek—161191792F. Marat—1471119113
WJun 15 · 08:25M. Filipek—11118113F. Marat—991181
LJun 12 · 12:55M. Filipek—88121682F. Marat—11111014113
LJun 11 · 11:55M. Filipek—116991F. Marat—51111113
LJun 9 · 10:45M. Filipek—127118102F. Marat—1011911123
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111LJul 30 · 10:24P. Moravec1.52141110113F. Marat2.351291251WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat1.839101311113A. Kral1.83111211652WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
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