TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089648
Played Sep 7Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169116111012––
Frantisek Balcar
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Frantisek Balcar at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 14–18 Frantisek Balcar Martin Filipek has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Balcar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Balcar
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1459 vs Balcar 1518
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 60% vs Balcar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 40% vs Balcar 60%
Balcar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek -1 · Balcar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Balcar)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.83 / Balcar 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Balcar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13089648
Filipek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Balcar1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek5wins
AwayBalcar5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek62.5%5 of 8
AwayBalcarn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek8Balcar2n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S2Filipek6Balcar4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S3Filipek4Balcar6n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Filipek5Balcar2n = 7Filipek took 5 of 7
S5Filipek2Balcar5n = 7Balcar took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekBalcarF − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.344.4−0.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 594 vs 111 / 23343.8%47.6%260 / 594 vs 111 / 233Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarFilipek 1.83/Balcar 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek—41161372F. Balcar—1161111113
WJul 20 · 11:25M. Filipek—1111113F. Balcar—8990
LJul 20 · 06:55M. Filipek—118101172F. Balcar—711128113
WJul 17 · 06:55M. Filipek—1111515113F. Balcar—88111792
LJul 16 · 13:20M. Filipek—917111182F. Balcar—111998113
WJul 16 · 12:20M. Filipek—1111163F. Balcar—69140
LJul 7 · 20:55M. Filipek—128101132F. Balcar—1011129113
WJun 17 · 13:54M. Filipek—119913113F. Balcar—911111182
WJun 17 · 12:55M. Filipek—1111113F. Balcar—9840
LJun 11 · 14:10M. Filipek—121364102F. Balcar—10111111123
M. Filipek10
WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113
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