TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13077698
Played Sep 4Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511119116711115
Adam Kral
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Adam Kral at 62.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 2–9 Adam Kral Frantisek Balcar has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Kral
Wrong
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1528 vs Kral 1517
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 60% vs Kral 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 70% vs Kral 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar -1 · Kral +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 2.25 / Kral 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kral)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13077698
Balcar2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 42 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Kral1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it70% 42 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalcar2wins
AwayKral8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKral leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcarn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKral77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar1Kral9n = 10Kral took 9 of 10
S2Balcar6Kral4n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S3Balcar6Kral4n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Balcar3Kral5n = 8Kral took 5 of 8
S5Balcar1Kral5n = 6Kral took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalcarKralB − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.543.5−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarKralBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 231 vs 406 / 77647.6%52.3%110 / 231 vs 406 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralBalcar 2.25/Kral 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar—511117113A. Kral—11961152
LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar—210111172A. Kral—111294113
LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar—811981A. Kral—11811113
LJul 6 · 18:05F. Balcar—611121192A. Kral—1171013113
WJul 6 · 15:55F. Balcar—31111113A. Kral—117791
LApr 21 · 11:20F. Balcar—98100A. Kral—1111123
LMar 31 · 21:25F. Balcar—121111772A. Kral—145811113
LMar 10 · 13:50F. Balcar—89111152A. Kral—111188113
LDec 6 · 12:50F. Balcar—11116892A. Kral—891111113
LDec 6 · 09:50F. Balcar—29130A. Kral—1111153
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172
A. Kral10
WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113LSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
A. Kral
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