TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058340
Played Sep 1Finished
Ladislav Moravec
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111179111181412
Adam Kral
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 100 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Adam Kral at 61.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 2–7 Adam Kral Ladislav Moravec has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:23What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Kral
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1663 vs Kral 1488
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 100% vs Kral 40%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 80% vs Kral 50%
Moravec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +5 · Kral +2
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.38 / Kral 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kral)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13058340
Moravec2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Kral1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 61 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 41 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMoravec2wins
AwayKral7wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKral leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec25%1 of 4
AwayKral80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec4Kral5n = 9Kral took 5 of 9
S2Moravec3Kral6n = 9Kral took 6 of 9
S3Moravec1Kral8n = 9Kral took 8 of 9
S4Moravec1Kral6n = 7Kral took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away556%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricMoravecKralM − KBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match36.442.2−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecKralBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 253 vs 404 / 77543.1%52.1%109 / 253 vs 404 / 775Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralMoravec 2.38/Kral 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec—611911143A. Kral—117118122
LAug 4 · 16:00L. Moravec—6111191A. Kral—11613113
LAug 4 · 13:59L. Moravec—6111191A. Kral—11613113
LAug 4 · 11:55L. Moravec—88100A. Kral—1111123
LJul 9 · 16:25L. Moravec—112891A. Kral—71111113
LJun 5 · 13:23L. Moravec—12790A. Kral—1411113
WJun 5 · 12:20L. Moravec—119115113A. Kral—91191182
LApr 23 · 11:55L. Moravec—1166101A. Kral—91111123
LApr 21 · 12:50L. Moravec—1610941A. Kral—141211113
L. Moravec10
LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WAug 27 · 14:10L. Moravec1.5411511113B. Budik2.32711791WAug 27 · 12:50B. Budik2.6511139872L. Moravec1.438111111113WAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:20J. Sebl2.25461191L. Moravec1.5711119113LAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.61131050L. Moravec2.201512113WAug 25 · 16:25L. Moravec2.25117711113J. Hendrych1.5731111882
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113
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