TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023431
Played Aug 27Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411611119911––
Ladislav Moravec
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 57.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 1–3 Ladislav Moravec Jachym Sebl has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Moravec
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1634 vs Moravec 1589
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 100% vs Moravec 60%
Sebl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 90% vs Moravec 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +5 · Moravec -1
Sebl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.25 / Moravec 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Moravec)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13023431
Sebl2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 67 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Moravec1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 30 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSebl1wins
AwayMoravec3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMoravec leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMoravec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S2Sebl3Moravec1n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4
S3Sebl1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S4Sebl1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSeblMoravecS − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.046.8−7.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 642 vs 102 / 24646.9%41.5%301 / 642 vs 102 / 246Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecSebl 2.25/Moravec 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 30 · 10:20J. Sebl—113291L. Moravec—91111113
LJun 23 · 13:55J. Sebl—711741L. Moravec—11411113
WJun 23 · 10:20J. Sebl—611811113L. Moravec—11911972
LJun 18 · 10:20J. Sebl—1012115172L. Moravec—1210911193
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
L. Moravec10
LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122WSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WAug 27 · 14:10L. Moravec1.5411511113B. Budik2.32711791WAug 27 · 12:50B. Budik2.6511139872L. Moravec1.438111111113WAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192LAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.61131050L. Moravec2.201512113WAug 25 · 16:25L. Moravec2.25117711113J. Hendrych1.5731111882
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.