TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058131
Played Sep 1Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911811––––
Ladislav Moravec
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ladislav Moravec at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 2–1 Ladislav Moravec Ladislav Moravec has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:23What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1512 vs Moravec 1640
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 100% vs Moravec 80%
Balcar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 70% vs Moravec 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +5 · Moravec +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 1.83 / Moravec 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13058131
Balcar1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Moravec1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBalcar2wins
AwayMoravec1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBalcar leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S2Balcar2Moravec1n = 3Balcar took 2 of 3
S3Balcar1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricBalcarMoravecB − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match36.735.3+1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 223 vs 106 / 25047.1%42.4%105 / 223 vs 106 / 250Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecBalcar 1.83/Moravec 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 2 · 11:25F. Balcar—6111111113L. Moravec—11613972
LApr 21 · 13:30F. Balcar—57100L. Moravec—1111123
WApr 21 · 10:20F. Balcar—1611113L. Moravec—14660
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172
L. Moravec10
LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122WAug 27 · 14:10L. Moravec1.5411511113B. Budik2.32711791WAug 27 · 12:50B. Budik2.6511139872L. Moravec1.438111111113WAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:20J. Sebl2.25461191L. Moravec1.5711119113LAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.61131050L. Moravec2.201512113WAug 25 · 16:25L. Moravec2.25117711113J. Hendrych1.5731111882
Upcoming Matches
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