TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073684
Played Sep 4Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2111012119114711
Adam Kral
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 64.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 1–8 Adam Kral Frantisek Balcar has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-8 in 9
Kral
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1552 vs Kral 1493
Balcar
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 80% vs Kral 40%
Balcar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 80% vs Kral 60%
Balcar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +3 · Kral +1
Balcar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 2.50 / Kral 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kral)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13073684
Balcar2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 42 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Kral1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it70% 42 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBalcar1wins
AwayKral8wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKral leads 8–1, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcarn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKral87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar1Kral8n = 9Kral took 8 of 9
S2Balcar5Kral4n = 9Balcar took 5 of 9
S3Balcar4Kral5n = 9Kral took 5 of 9
S4Balcar2Kral4n = 6Kral took 4 of 6
S5Balcar0Kral4n = 4Kral took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricBalcarKralB − KBasisWins18−7in 9 meetingsFirst set18−7of 9Avg pointsper match36.242.2−6.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarKralBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 229 vs 405 / 77447.6%52.3%109 / 229 vs 405 / 774Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralBalcar 2.50/Kral 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar—811981A. Kral—11811113
LJul 6 · 18:05F. Balcar—611121192A. Kral—1171013113
WJul 6 · 15:55F. Balcar—31111113A. Kral—117791
LApr 21 · 11:20F. Balcar—98100A. Kral—1111123
LMar 31 · 21:25F. Balcar—121111772A. Kral—145811113
LMar 10 · 13:50F. Balcar—89111152A. Kral—111188113
LDec 6 · 12:50F. Balcar—11116892A. Kral—891111113
LDec 6 · 09:50F. Balcar—29130A. Kral—1111153
LDec 3 · 11:50F. Balcar—34100A. Kral—1111123
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113LSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
A. Kral
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