TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070318
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119911711––
Adam Kral
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 60.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 10–3 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1415 vs Kral 1498
Kral
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 80% vs Kral 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 40% vs Kral 60%
Kral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +1 · Kral +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.67 / Kral 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dohnal)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13070318
Dohnal1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 117 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it90% 54 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it69% 79 of 115
Kral2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 91 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal7wins
AwayKral3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal66.7%2 of 3
AwayKral28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal3Kral7n = 10Kral took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal7Kral3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S3Dohnal6Kral4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal6Kral2n = 9Dohnal took 6 of 9
S5Dohnal3Kral2n = 5Dohnal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalKralD − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.338.4+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalKralBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 678 vs 405 / 77659.4%52.2%403 / 678 vs 405 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.640.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.67/Kral 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 15:20J. Dohnal—971141A. Kral—11112113
WMar 9 · 20:55J. Dohnal—101111113A. Kral—127651
WMar 8 · 14:54J. Dohnal—881111113A. Kral—11119692
LMar 8 · 12:55J. Dohnal—111191052A. Kral—561112113
WFeb 22 · 11:55J. Dohnal—1211113A. Kral—10890
LFeb 21 · 19:25J. Dohnal—411513112A. Kral—1171111133
WFeb 21 · 17:55J. Dohnal—911711113A. Kral—11211132
WFeb 7 · 17:55J. Dohnal—14115103A. Kral—1281181
WFeb 6 · 20:20J. Dohnal—61111112A. Kral—1189111
WJan 28 · 21:20J. Dohnal—5101111113A. Kral—11127572
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113LSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
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