TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085078
Played Sep 6Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11711911131513––
Bohuslav Budik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBohuslav Budik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Bohuslav Budik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 90 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Bohuslav Budik at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 34–31 Bohuslav Budik Bohuslav Budik has won 31 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-31 in 65
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 3 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1499 vs Budik 1621
Budik
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 80% vs Budik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 70% vs Budik 90%
Budik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +3 · Budik +1
Dohnal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Budik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.73 / Budik 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Budik)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13085078
Dohnal1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 114 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 56 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it70% 80 of 115
Budik2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal4wins
AwayBudik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBudik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal100%3 of 3
AwayBudik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal3Budik7n = 10Budik took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal7Budik3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S3Dohnal2Budik8n = 10Budik took 8 of 10
S4Dohnal4Budik4n = 8split evenly
S5Dohnal2Budik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalBudikD − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.542.6−3.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalBudikBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 683 vs 220 / 49859.4%44.2%406 / 683 vs 220 / 498Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudikDohnal 1.73/Budik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Budik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 20:20J. Dohnal—41150B. Budik—1113113
LAug 28 · 21:25J. Dohnal—611100B. Budik—1113123
LAug 13 · 21:25J. Dohnal—8101281B. Budik—111210113
WAug 13 · 19:20J. Dohnal—11116113B. Budik—691181
LAug 1 · 19:55J. Dohnal—912111152B. Budik—1110136113
WJul 12 · 15:50J. Dohnal—11115113B. Budik—781181
LJul 9 · 22:40J. Dohnal—5115141B. Budik—11711163
LJul 9 · 18:55J. Dohnal—91471192B. Budik—1112119113
WJun 18 · 21:30J. Dohnal—1113911113B. Budik—611111382
WJun 18 · 18:50J. Dohnal—611116113B. Budik—11941192
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132LSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113
B. Budik10
WSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890LSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113WSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672LSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872WSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690WSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113WSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060
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