TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071362
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1614121012145111513
Martin Filipek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 122 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.0%
122 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 3–7 Martin Filipek Jaroslav Dohnal has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Filipek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Filipek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1395 vs Filipek 1497
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 40% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 40% vs Filipek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -2 · Filipek +3
Filipek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Filipek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 2.00 / Filipek 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Filipek)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13071362
Dohnal2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 9 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Filipek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 54 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 38 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal3wins
AwayFilipek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal42.9%3 of 7
AwayFilipek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal7Filipek3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal2Filipek8n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S3Dohnal6Filipek4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal2Filipek7n = 9Filipek took 7 of 9
S5Dohnal1Filipek3n = 4Filipek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalFilipekD − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.4−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 679 vs 254 / 58159.4%43.7%403 / 679 vs 254 / 581Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekDohnal 2.00/Filipek 1.73
Miss
What we said
55.7%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 3 · 18:35J. Dohnal—11911652M. Filipek—411811113
LApr 3 · 14:55J. Dohnal—117961M. Filipek—81111113
WJan 7 · 21:55J. Dohnal—111174113M. Filipek—62111162
LDec 4 · 01:50J. Dohnal—7121171M. Filipek—11142113
LNov 26 · 08:20J. Dohnal—111050M. Filipek—1312113
WApr 2 · 22:05J. Dohnal—111011113M. Filipek—812661
WApr 2 · 18:20J. Dohnal—11811113M. Filipek—311491
LMar 25 · 23:05J. Dohnal—11311482M. Filipek—811811113
LMar 25 · 19:50J. Dohnal—10121113112M. Filipek—1210915133
LMar 4 · 19:50J. Dohnal—1127101M. Filipek—71111123
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Filipek
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