TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082160
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210117811117––
Martin Filipek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-7
Point 73 set 4, 7-7 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 67.1%
73 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 2–1 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1536 vs Filipek 1440
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 100% vs Filipek 20%
Dvorak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 90% vs Filipek 40%
Dvorak
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +5 · Filipek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.40 / Filipek 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Dvorak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13082160
Dvorak1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 25 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it67% 18 of 27
Filipek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwayFilipek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDvorak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak2Filipek1n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S2Dvorak3Filipek0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
S3Dvorak2Filipek1n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDvorakFilipekD − FBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.730.0+8.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 343 vs 256 / 58848.7%43.5%167 / 343 vs 256 / 588Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.40/Filipek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMay 8 · 18:30J. Dvorak—91371192M. Filipek—1111116113
WMay 8 · 15:25J. Dvorak—1211113M. Filipek—10550
WNov 16 · 09:50J. Dvorak—1111113M. Filipek—8390
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140WAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133
M. Filipek10
WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891LSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132WSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113
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