TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13054147
Played Aug 31Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112112112––––
Jiri Melichar
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Jiri Melichar below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 39 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 61.5%
39 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 11–7 Jiri Melichar Jiri Melichar has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melichar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1551 vs Melichar 1488
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 80% vs Melichar 40%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 80% vs Melichar 40%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +3 · Melichar -1
Dvorak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melichar) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.00 / Melichar 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melichar)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13054147
Dvorak2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 67 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Melichar1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 15 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak4wins
AwayMelichar6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelichar leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak66.7%4 of 6
AwayMelichar100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Melichar4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak6Melichar4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak4Melichar6n = 10Melichar took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak4Melichar4n = 8split evenly
S5Dvorak1Melichar3n = 4Melichar took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakMelicharD − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.639.8−1.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 345 vs 33 / 5948.7%55.9%168 / 345 vs 33 / 59Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharDvorak 2.00/Melichar 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak—1111163J. Melichar—56140
LAug 16 · 15:25J. Dvorak—147741J. Melichar—121111113
LAug 13 · 17:30J. Dvorak—111191492J. Melichar—371116113
LAug 13 · 16:50J. Dvorak—61171142J. Melichar—118119113
WAug 5 · 18:23J. Dvorak—1111113J. Melichar—5680
LAug 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak—331171J. Melichar—11119113
WJul 31 · 17:54J. Dvorak—117912113J. Melichar—711111062
LJul 31 · 16:55J. Dvorak—711691J. Melichar—11711113
WJul 28 · 14:55J. Dvorak—11113113J. Melichar—891161
LJul 26 · 18:35J. Dvorak—89111452J. Melichar—1111512113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140WAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133
J. Melichar10
LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113WSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113WSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113LAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140WAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251
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