TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051993
Played Aug 31Finished
Jiri Melichar
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151171012115––
Jan Hendrych
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Hendrych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Melichar above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Hendrych at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Melichar 2–2 Jan Hendrych Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hendrych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melichar 1500 vs Hendrych 1587
Hendrych
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melichar 20% vs Hendrych 60%
Hendrych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melichar 50% vs Hendrych 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melichar +1 · Hendrych -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hendrych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelichar 1.83 / Hendrych 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hendrych)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13051993
Melichar1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Hendrych1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMelichar2wins
AwayHendrych2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelicharn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHendrych66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melichar1Hendrych3n = 4Hendrych took 3 of 4
S2Melichar2Hendrych2n = 4split evenly
S3Melichar2Hendrych2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricMelicharHendrychM − HBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match30.031.0−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelicharHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 57 vs 271 / 53556.1%50.7%32 / 57 vs 271 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HendrychMelichar 1.83/Hendrych 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hendrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 17 · 16:25J. Melichar—7980J. Hendrych—1111113
WJun 29 · 16:20J. Melichar—1118113J. Hendrych—61680
WJul 15 · 14:40J. Melichar—81111113J. Hendrych—117371
LJan 19 · 13:55J. Melichar—6270J. Hendrych—1111113
J. Melichar10
LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113WSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113WSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113LAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140
J. Hendrych10
LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.679790J. Dvorak2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:47J. Hendrych1.806111091A. Langer1.9011912113WAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:20J. Hendrych2.75614711113M. Sulc1.40111211692WAug 28 · 14:20J. Hendrych2.201111113A. Langer1.619830WAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.00631171J. Hendrych1.7311119113LAug 25 · 16:25L. Moravec2.25117711113J. Hendrych1.5731111882
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