TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051901
Played Aug 31Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118511115––
Jan Hendrych
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJan Hendrych to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 68 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Hendrych at 56.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 26–28 Jan Hendrych Milan Dvorak has won 26 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hendrych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-28 in 54
Hendrych
Wrong
gap of 2 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1431 vs Hendrych 1587
Hendrych
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Hendrych 40%
Hendrych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 20% vs Hendrych 60%
Hendrych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -3 · Hendrych -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hendrych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.00 / Hendrych 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Hendrych)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13051901
Dvorak2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 41 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Hendrych1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 51 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak3wins
AwayHendrych7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHendrych leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHendrych77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak1Hendrych9n = 10Hendrych took 9 of 10
S2Dvorak7Hendrych3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S3Dvorak5Hendrych5n = 10split evenly
S4Dvorak4Hendrych4n = 8split evenly
S5Dvorak1Hendrych3n = 4Hendrych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakHendrychD − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.4−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 341 vs 271 / 53548.4%50.7%165 / 341 vs 271 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HendrychDvorak 2.00/Hendrych 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Hendrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 14:55M. Dvorak—711114102J. Hendrych—119511123
LJul 29 · 17:55M. Dvorak—101161132J. Hendrych—125118113
WJul 29 · 16:20M. Dvorak—1611911113J. Hendrych—18811692
LJul 22 · 14:55M. Dvorak—8870J. Hendrych—1111113
LJun 30 · 16:20M. Dvorak—711951J. Hendrych—11911113
LJun 24 · 17:30M. Dvorak—99141172J. Hendrych—1111124113
LJun 24 · 14:20M. Dvorak—9116111J. Hendrych—11511133
WJun 15 · 15:20M. Dvorak—81111113J. Hendrych—119791
LJun 10 · 16:50M. Dvorak—8101291J. Hendrych—111210113
WMay 27 · 16:50M. Dvorak—1111123J. Hendrych—67100
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113LAug 28 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.806880D. Tichy1.911111113
J. Hendrych10
LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251LAug 31 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.679790J. Dvorak2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:47J. Hendrych1.806111091A. Langer1.9011912113WAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:20J. Hendrych2.75614711113M. Sulc1.40111211692WAug 28 · 14:20J. Hendrych2.201111113A. Langer1.619830WAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.00631171J. Hendrych1.7311119113LAug 25 · 16:25L. Moravec2.25117711113J. Hendrych1.5731111882
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