TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051998
Played Aug 31Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11981131115131113
Jakub Dvorak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 105 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.1%
105 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 9–7 Jakub Dvorak Jakub Dvorak has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:03What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1439 vs Dvorak 1516
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Dvorak 80%
Dvorak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 30% vs Dvorak 70%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Dvorak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.73 / Dvorak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13051998
Dvorak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite45% won 31 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it53% 17 of 32
Dvorak2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 67 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak5wins
AwayDvorak5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak66.7%4 of 6
AwayDvorak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Dvorak4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak6Dvorak4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak3Dvorak2n = 5Dvorak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakDvorakDvorak − DvorakBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.230.6+0.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 340 vs 166 / 34348.5%48.4%165 / 340 vs 166 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.73/Dvorak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 17:25M. Dvorak—71311113J. Dvorak—1111771
LJul 31 · 16:25M. Dvorak—511361J. Dvorak—11411113
LMay 14 · 15:20M. Dvorak—119471J. Dvorak—41111113
LMay 11 · 17:25M. Dvorak—11771262J. Dvorak—8111110113
WJan 26 · 19:25M. Dvorak—1111113J. Dvorak—5460
WJan 26 · 17:25M. Dvorak—1111113J. Dvorak—7860
LSep 29 · 14:40M. Dvorak—6550J. Dvorak—1111113
LSep 29 · 14:40M. Dvorak—6550J. Dvorak—1111113
WSep 22 · 16:50M. Dvorak—1115113J. Dvorak—41350
WSep 1 · 15:50M. Dvorak—11113113J. Dvorak—541111
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113LAug 28 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.806880D. Tichy1.911111113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113
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