TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051773
Played Aug 31Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811811––––
Jiri Melichar
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jiri Melichar below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jiri Melichar at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 2–0 Jiri Melichar Jiri Melichar has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1462 vs Melichar 1477
Melichar
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Melichar 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 40% vs Melichar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Melichar -4
Melichar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melichar form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.57 / Melichar 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dvorak)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13051773
Dvorak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite45% won 31 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it53% 17 of 32
Melichar2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog63% won 10 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back50% 4 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwayMelichar0wins
Dvorak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDvorakMelicharD − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.020.5+12.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 339 vs 31 / 5648.7%55.4%165 / 339 vs 31 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.57/Melichar 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 30 · 15:55M. Dvorak—1111113J. Melichar—9770
WJan 16 · 16:10M. Dvorak—1111113J. Melichar—6840
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113LAug 28 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.806880D. Tichy1.911111113
J. Melichar10
LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113WSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113WSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113LAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140
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