TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076892
Played Sep 4Finished
Zdenek Zahradka
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511711119911––
Jiri Melichar
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:41 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeJiri Melichar to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Zahradka above · Jiri Melichar below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jiri Melichar at 64.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zahradka 2–4 Jiri Melichar Zdenek Zahradka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Melichar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Melichar
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1393 vs Melichar 1495
Melichar
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 20% vs Melichar 60%
Melichar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 30% vs Melichar 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka +1 · Melichar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Melichar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 2.38 / Melichar 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Melichar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13076892
Zahradka2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 77 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Melichar1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZahradka2wins
AwayMelichar4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderMelichar leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradka66.7%2 of 3
AwayMelichar100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka3Melichar3n = 6split evenly
S2Zahradka1Melichar5n = 6Melichar took 5 of 6
S3Zahradka3Melichar3n = 6split evenly
S4Zahradka1Melichar4n = 5Melichar took 4 of 5
S5Zahradka2Melichar1n = 3Zahradka took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricZahradkaMelicharZ − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match34.341.3−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 836 vs 35 / 6250.4%56.5%421 / 836 vs 35 / 62Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelicharZahradka 2.38/Melichar 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Melichar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melichar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 30 · 14:01Z. Zahradka—118115113J. Melichar—81191122
WAug 30 · 11:55Z. Zahradka—111173113J. Melichar—97111172
LAug 21 · 16:25Z. Zahradka—78111172J. Melichar—111138113
LAug 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka—121531J. Melichar—101111113
LNov 8 · 12:55Z. Zahradka—9690J. Melichar—1111113
LJun 25 · 15:20Z. Zahradka—841151J. Melichar—11119113
Z. Zahradka10
WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192LSep 4 · 18:00Z. Zahradka1.6111911592R. Jamrich2.20711811113WSep 4 · 15:55R. Jamrich2.1054111172Z. Zahradka1.67111196113
J. Melichar10
LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113WSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113LAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140WAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251
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