TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13012906
Played Aug 25Finished
Ladislav Moravec
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113711711118118
Jan Hendrych
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Jan Hendrych below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 88 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ladislav Moravec at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 2–2 Jan Hendrych Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hendrych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1579 vs Hendrych 1540
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Hendrych 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 90% vs Hendrych 60%
Moravec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Hendrych +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hendrych) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.25 / Hendrych 1.57
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hendrych)-4.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13012906
Moravec2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Hendrych1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 51 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMoravec2wins
AwayHendrych2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec66.7%2 of 3
AwayHendrychn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Hendrych1n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S2Moravec1Hendrych3n = 4Hendrych took 3 of 4
S3Moravec2Hendrych2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMoravecHendrychM − HBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match30.231.0−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecHendrychBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 243 vs 270 / 53841.2%50.2%100 / 243 vs 270 / 538Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 2.25/Hendrych 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hendrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 9 · 17:29L. Moravec—9760J. Hendrych—1111113
LApr 9 · 16:20L. Moravec—114491J. Hendrych—41111113
WSep 16 · 09:25L. Moravec—11511113J. Hendrych—711881
WSep 16 · 08:55L. Moravec—1111113J. Hendrych—6950
L. Moravec10
LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122WSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WAug 27 · 14:10L. Moravec1.5411511113B. Budik2.32711791WAug 27 · 12:50B. Budik2.6511139872L. Moravec1.438111111113WAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:20J. Sebl2.25461191L. Moravec1.5711119113LAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.61131050L. Moravec2.201512113
J. Hendrych10
LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251LAug 31 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.679790J. Dvorak2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:47J. Hendrych1.806111091A. Langer1.9011912113WAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:20J. Hendrych2.75614711113M. Sulc1.40111211692WAug 28 · 14:20J. Hendrych2.201111113A. Langer1.619830WAug 25 · 18:30L. Moravec1.9097100J. Hendrych1.801111123WAug 25 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.00631171J. Hendrych1.7311119113
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