TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080357
Played Sep 5Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911181621169––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:18 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 7-9
Point 83 set 4, 7-9 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 73.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 4–2 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:18What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1492 vs Jr 1439
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 60% vs Jr 40%
Dohnal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 70% vs Jr 50%
Dohnal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +3 · Jr +1
Dohnal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.33 / Jr 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Dohnal)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13080357
Dohnal1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 113 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it68% 78 of 114
Jr3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDohnal4wins
AwayJr2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderDohnal leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal100%4 of 4
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal4Jr2n = 6Dohnal took 4 of 6
S2Dohnal5Jr1n = 6Dohnal took 5 of 6
S3Dohnal2Jr4n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S4Dohnal2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricDohnalJrD − JBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.537.8+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalJrBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 682 vs 249 / 52959.4%47.1%405 / 682 vs 249 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.33/Jr 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.9%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 5 · 14:30J. Dohnal—111189113A. Jr—87111182
LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal—918261A. Jr—11161193
WDec 8 · 20:55J. Dohnal—1113113A. Jr—61150
WOct 28 · 03:20J. Dohnal—111214113A. Jr—5141271
LOct 17 · 23:50J. Dohnal—611881A. Jr—11811113
WOct 9 · 19:55J. Dohnal—11118123A. Jr—6711101
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132LSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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