TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050093
Played Aug 31Finished
Ondrej Knazik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711611––––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Knazik to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Knazik above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Knazik at 67.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Knazik 17–11 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Knazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-11 in 28
Knazik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Knazik 1588 vs Jr 1407
Knazik
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Knazik 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Knazik 50% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Knazik +1 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Knazik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKnazik 1.44 / Jr 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Knazik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13050093
Knazik1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 88 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it65% 57 of 88
Jr2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKnazik6wins
AwayJr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKnazik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKnazik71.4%5 of 7
AwayJr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Knazik7Jr3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S2Knazik7Jr3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S3Knazik6Jr4n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S4Knazik4Jr3n = 7Knazik took 4 of 7
S5Knazik1Jr3n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKnazikJrK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.635.6+5.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKnazikJrBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 886 vs 250 / 53451.7%46.8%458 / 886 vs 250 / 534Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KnazikKnazik 1.44/Jr 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Knazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 11:50O. Knazik—11119113A. Jr—991121
WAug 9 · 20:25O. Knazik—11117113A. Jr—931171
LAug 5 · 13:25O. Knazik—11114952A. Jr—081111113
LJul 16 · 08:25O. Knazik—101011111A. Jr—12128133
WJul 12 · 19:55O. Knazik—1111123A. Jr—39100
WJul 8 · 07:55O. Knazik—1111113A. Jr—7960
WJul 7 · 13:55O. Knazik—1111123A. Jr—94100
LJul 7 · 10:50O. Knazik—11691182A. Jr—711119113
WJul 2 · 13:53O. Knazik—781111113A. Jr—11116492
LJul 2 · 11:55O. Knazik—111112772A. Jr—1371011113
O. Knazik10
WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
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