TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085080
Played Sep 6Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91112141012––––
Jachym Sebl
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 68 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 74.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 8–19 Jachym Sebl Ales Brandtl Jr has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Sebl
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1442 vs Sebl 1637
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Sebl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Sebl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Sebl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 3.25 / Sebl 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13085080
Jr3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Sebl1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 80 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 65 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwaySebl9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySebl100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Sebl8n = 10Sebl took 8 of 10
S2Jr3Sebl7n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S3Jr5Sebl5n = 10split evenly
S4Jr2Sebl6n = 8Sebl took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSeblJ − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.341.6−7.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 531 vs 300 / 63947.1%47%250 / 531 vs 300 / 639Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblJr 3.25/Sebl 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr—912100J. Sebl—1114123
LSep 5 · 12:55A. Jr—313112122J. Sebl—1111611143
LAug 31 · 08:55A. Jr—911551J. Sebl—11911113
LAug 22 · 11:25A. Jr—111871J. Sebl—11311113
LAug 21 · 12:20A. Jr—5711101J. Sebl—11119123
LAug 9 · 20:55A. Jr—831131J. Sebl—11119113
LJul 14 · 10:00A. Jr—691171J. Sebl—11118113
LJul 14 · 08:25A. Jr—710110J. Sebl—1112133
LJul 12 · 21:59A. Jr—111191172J. Sebl—113119113
WJul 12 · 20:55A. Jr—11613163J. Sebl—51111141
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
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