TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085128
Played Sep 6Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111171141210––
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 60.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 7–2 Lukas Dominik Rek Lukas Dominik Rek has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Sebl
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1637 vs Rek 1401
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 236 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 80% vs Rek 0%
Sebl
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 70% vs Rek 20%
Sebl
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +1 · Rek -5
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.57 / Rek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Sebl)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13085128
Sebl1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 80 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 65 of 86
Rek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 10 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSebl7wins
AwayRek2wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSebl leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl100%6 of 6
AwayRek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl6Rek3n = 9Sebl took 6 of 9
S2Sebl6Rek3n = 9Sebl took 6 of 9
S3Sebl7Rek2n = 9Sebl took 7 of 9
S4Sebl2Rek4n = 6Rek took 4 of 6
S5Sebl3Rek1n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSeblRekS − RBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.635.1+3.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblRekBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 639 vs 138 / 23347%59.2%300 / 639 vs 138 / 233Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.57/Rek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—8890
WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl—101111113L. Rek—125861
WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl—118135113L. Rek—411111152
WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—7930
LAug 9 · 19:55J. Sebl—511541L. Rek—11911113
WJul 23 · 12:20J. Sebl—1110117113L. Rek—41251192
WJun 22 · 12:20J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—7840
WJun 1 · 14:20J. Sebl—117118113L. Rek—71181192
LMay 9 · 18:55J. Sebl—11361132L. Rek—1111117113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.