TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050072
Played Aug 31Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911115115––
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 72.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 16–8 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Sebl
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1591 vs Jr 1428
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 40% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 40% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +1 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.36 / Jr 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13050072
Sebl1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 75 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Jr3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl8wins
AwayJr2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl100%7 of 7
AwayJr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl7Jr3n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S2Sebl8Jr2n = 10Sebl took 8 of 10
S3Sebl5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebl4Jr2n = 6Sebl took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblJrS − JBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.931.4+5.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblJrBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 644 vs 251 / 53546.7%46.9%301 / 644 vs 251 / 535Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.36/Jr 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 11:25J. Sebl—11311113A. Jr—111871
WAug 21 · 12:20J. Sebl—11119123A. Jr—5711101
WAug 9 · 20:55J. Sebl—11119113A. Jr—831131
WJul 14 · 10:00J. Sebl—11118113A. Jr—691171
WJul 14 · 08:25J. Sebl—1112133A. Jr—710110
WJul 12 · 21:59J. Sebl—113119113A. Jr—111191172
LJul 12 · 20:55J. Sebl—51111141A. Jr—11613163
WJul 8 · 08:55J. Sebl—1111113A. Jr—9570
WJul 2 · 13:25J. Sebl—1111113A. Jr—4960
LJun 7 · 09:40J. Sebl—8560A. Jr—1111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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