TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050067
Played Aug 31Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119113––––
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 52 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 58.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 4–2 Lukas Dominik Rek Lukas Dominik Rek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Sebl
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1591 vs Rek 1555
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 40% vs Rek 60%
Rek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 40% vs Rek 70%
Rek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl -2 · Rek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.25 / Rek 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Rek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13050067
Sebl2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Rek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 75 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSebl4wins
AwayRek2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSebl leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl100%4 of 4
AwayRekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Rek2n = 6Sebl took 4 of 6
S2Sebl4Rek2n = 6Sebl took 4 of 6
S3Sebl4Rek2n = 6Sebl took 4 of 6
S4Sebl1Rek3n = 4Rek took 3 of 4
S5Sebl2Rek1n = 3Sebl took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSeblRekS − RBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match37.236.3+0.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblRekBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 644 vs 137 / 22546.7%60.9%301 / 644 vs 137 / 225Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekSebl 2.25/Rek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—7930
LAug 9 · 19:55J. Sebl—511541L. Rek—11911113
WJul 23 · 12:20J. Sebl—1110117113L. Rek—41251192
WJun 22 · 12:20J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—7840
WJun 1 · 14:20J. Sebl—117118113L. Rek—71181192
LMay 9 · 18:55J. Sebl—11361132L. Rek—1111117113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192
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