TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080359
Played Sep 5Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11311136111121412
Ales Brandtl Jr
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:18 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 94 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 72.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 18–8 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-8 in 26
Sebl
Correct
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1643 vs Jr 1439
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 204 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 80% vs Jr 60%
Sebl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.36 / Jr 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13080359
Sebl1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 77 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it75% 63 of 84
Jr3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl9wins
AwayJr1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl100%8 of 8
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl8Jr2n = 10Sebl took 8 of 10
S2Sebl7Jr3n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S3Sebl5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebl6Jr2n = 8Sebl took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblJrS − JBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.233.3+7.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblJrBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 637 vs 249 / 52946.9%47.1%299 / 637 vs 249 / 529Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.36/Jr 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl—1111611143A. Jr—313112122
WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl—11911113A. Jr—911551
WAug 22 · 11:25J. Sebl—11311113A. Jr—111871
WAug 21 · 12:20J. Sebl—11119123A. Jr—5711101
WAug 9 · 20:55J. Sebl—11119113A. Jr—831131
WJul 14 · 10:00J. Sebl—11118113A. Jr—691171
WJul 14 · 08:25J. Sebl—1112133A. Jr—710110
WJul 12 · 21:59J. Sebl—113119113A. Jr—111191172
LJul 12 · 20:55J. Sebl—51111141A. Jr—11613163
WJul 8 · 08:55J. Sebl—1111113A. Jr—9570
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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