TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085157
Played Sep 6Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7119111214––––
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 64 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 73.1%
64 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 0–4 Tomas Hnizdil Ales Brandtl Jr has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1442 vs Hnizdil 1577
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Hnizdil 60%
Hnizdil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Hnizdil 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Hnizdil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hnizdil form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 3.25 / Hnizdil 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Hnizdil)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13085157
Jr3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Hnizdil1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 40 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJr0wins
AwayHnizdil4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderHnizdil leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Hnizdil2n = 4split evenly
S2Jr2Hnizdil2n = 4split evenly
S3Jr1Hnizdil3n = 4Hnizdil took 3 of 4
S4Jr1Hnizdil3n = 4Hnizdil took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJrHnizdilJ − HBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.544.8−13.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 531 vs 145 / 25347.1%57.3%250 / 531 vs 145 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilJr 3.25/Hnizdil 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 15 · 08:55A. Jr—511831T. Hnizdil—11711113
LJul 14 · 07:25A. Jr—811651T. Hnizdil—11911113
LJul 29 · 07:20A. Jr—11511442T. Hnizdil—711711113
LJul 9 · 06:50A. Jr—11451132T. Hnizdil—811119113
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872LSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572
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