TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085070
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118811117811111
Jachym Sebl
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 87 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 18–12 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1549 vs Sebl 1643
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 20% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 50% vs Sebl 70%
Sebl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil -1 · Sebl +3
Sebl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.40 / Sebl 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Hnizdil)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13085070
Hnizdil1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 40 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Sebl2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHnizdil9wins
AwaySebl1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil100%7 of 7
AwaySebl33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil7Sebl3n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S2Hnizdil8Sebl2n = 10Hnizdil took 8 of 10
S3Hnizdil7Sebl3n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S4Hnizdil4Sebl0n = 4Hnizdil took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHnizdilSeblH − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.727.6+7.1per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 251 vs 299 / 63757%46.9%143 / 251 vs 299 / 637Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.40/Sebl 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 13:19T. Hnizdil—1113113J. Sebl—81150
WJul 30 · 11:20T. Hnizdil—1111113J. Sebl—3740
WJul 27 · 10:50T. Hnizdil—61211113J. Sebl—1110741
WJul 23 · 13:53T. Hnizdil—1111113J. Sebl—7870
WJul 23 · 10:50T. Hnizdil—112111113J. Sebl—91111962
WJul 14 · 09:25T. Hnizdil—11115153J. Sebl—8511131
WApr 5 · 11:55T. Hnizdil—1111113J. Sebl—8860
LFeb 23 · 12:55T. Hnizdil—9490J. Sebl—1111113
WFeb 3 · 11:00T. Hnizdil—1111123J. Sebl—52100
WFeb 3 · 09:25T. Hnizdil—61111113J. Sebl—117561
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872LSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
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