TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085071
Played Sep 6Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113811115117117
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Jr to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ales Brandtl Jr at 60.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 5–5 Lukas Dominik Rek Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1439 vs Rek 1426
Jr
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Rek 0%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Rek 20%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Rek -5
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Rek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13085071
Jr2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 58
Rek1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayRek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr60%3 of 5
AwayRek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr8Rek2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S4Jr2Rek4n = 6Rek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.233.3−0.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 529 vs 138 / 23147.1%59.7%249 / 529 vs 138 / 231Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 2.00/Rek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr—1111113L. Rek—8780
LAug 31 · 07:25A. Jr—1181031L. Rek—61112113
WAug 9 · 21:55A. Jr—1111113L. Rek—8580
LAug 9 · 19:25A. Jr—961161L. Rek—11118113
WJun 26 · 16:55A. Jr—81111113L. Rek—116881
LMay 15 · 22:30A. Jr—721151L. Rek—11112113
WMay 15 · 20:25A. Jr—51111113L. Rek—119871
LMay 13 · 15:20A. Jr—6670L. Rek—1111113
LMay 1 · 16:50A. Jr—111011862L. Rek—812511113
WJan 18 · 20:55A. Jr—1111113L. Rek—7990
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
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