TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080366
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Dominik Rek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210711911511––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:18 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 55.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 2–0 Jaroslav Dohnal Jaroslav Dohnal has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rek 1507 vs Dohnal 1450
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 20% vs Dohnal 60%
Dohnal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 40% vs Dohnal 60%
Dohnal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -3 · Dohnal -1
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.67 / Dohnal 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Rek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13080366
Rek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 69 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it79% 48 of 61
Dohnal2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 11 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwayDohnal0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderRek leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRekDohnalR − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match45.042.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 229 vs 403 / 68060.3%59.3%138 / 229 vs 403 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.67/Dohnal 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMay 22 · 19:50L. Rek—811113113J. Dohnal—11941192
WMay 16 · 10:55L. Rek—111410113J. Dohnal—7121291
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132LSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113
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