TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058370
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
21112101113119118
Ondrej Knazik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 63–34 Ondrej Knazik Ondrej Knazik has won 34 of their 97 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-34 in 97
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 29 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1381 vs Knazik 1564
Knazik
Wrong
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 40% vs Knazik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 40% vs Knazik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +2 · Knazik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.61 / Knazik 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dohnal)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13058370
Dohnal1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 116 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it90% 54 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it69% 79 of 115
Knazik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 85 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal5wins
AwayKnazik5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal62.5%5 of 8
AwayKnazikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal8Knazik2n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S2Dohnal5Knazik5n = 10split evenly
S3Dohnal5Knazik5n = 10split evenly
S4Dohnal4Knazik5n = 9Knazik took 5 of 9
S5Dohnal2Knazik4n = 6Knazik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalKnazikD − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.844.1−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 675 vs 454 / 87859.4%51.7%401 / 675 vs 454 / 878Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.61/Knazik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 11:55J. Dohnal—32111192O. Knazik—111186113
WJul 19 · 14:33J. Dohnal—111110113O. Knazik—981281
LJul 19 · 11:55J. Dohnal—117111072O. Knazik—911912113
WJul 7 · 18:20J. Dohnal—1116104113O. Knazik—814121172
LJul 6 · 18:20J. Dohnal—111166112O. Knazik—491111133
WJul 5 · 12:50J. Dohnal—20811113O. Knazik—1811441
LJun 14 · 17:30J. Dohnal—811571O. Knazik—11911113
WJun 14 · 15:50J. Dohnal—11111011113O. Knazik—71312582
LJun 13 · 18:00J. Dohnal—12714862O. Knazik—10111211113
WJun 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal—1111123O. Knazik—88100
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
O. Knazik10
WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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