TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068264
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191168111412––
Ondrej Knazik
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:29 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 82 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 59.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 23–17 Ondrej Knazik Ondrej Knazik has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-17 in 40
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1559 vs Knazik 1558
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 60% vs Knazik 40%
Hnizdil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 60% vs Knazik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil -1 · Knazik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.57 / Knazik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Hnizdil)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13068264
Hnizdil1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 35 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Knazik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 85 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHnizdil6wins
AwayKnazik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil100%4 of 4
AwayKnazik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S2Hnizdil3Knazik7n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S3Hnizdil7Knazik3n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S4Hnizdil5Knazik4n = 9Hnizdil took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHnizdilKnazikH − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.7+0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 245 vs 455 / 88156.7%51.7%139 / 245 vs 455 / 881Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.57/Knazik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 10:20T. Hnizdil—21111113O. Knazik—118991
WJul 27 · 13:55T. Hnizdil—11711113O. Knazik—711961
LJul 27 · 11:20T. Hnizdil—10101191O. Knazik—12126113
WJul 18 · 13:55T. Hnizdil—911117113O. Knazik—11471142
LJul 18 · 13:25T. Hnizdil—41090O. Knazik—1112113
LMar 15 · 13:50T. Hnizdil—751141O. Knazik—11117113
WFeb 28 · 11:55T. Hnizdil—11711113O. Knazik—711481
LFeb 23 · 14:25T. Hnizdil—661371O. Knazik—111111113
WFeb 15 · 14:47T. Hnizdil—1111883O. Knazik—841151
WFeb 15 · 12:50T. Hnizdil—1171011113O. Knazik—61112682
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872
O. Knazik10
WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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