TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089609
Played Sep 7Finished
Dominik Pasek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
101212141161315––
Martin Filipek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pasek above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 93 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pasek 1–2 Martin Filipek Dominik Pasek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:44What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pasek 1429 vs Filipek 1459
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pasek 40% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pasek 40% vs Filipek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pasek -2 · Filipek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPasek 1.83 / Filipek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Filipek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13089609
Pasek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Filipek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePasek1wins
AwayFilipek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFilipek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pasek1Filipek2n = 3Filipek took 2 of 3
S2Pasek1Filipek2n = 3Filipek took 2 of 3
S3Pasek2Filipek1n = 3Pasek took 2 of 3
S4Pasek0Filipek3n = 3Filipek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPasekFilipekP − FBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match46.348.0−1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPasekFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 108 vs 260 / 59442.6%43.8%46 / 108 vs 260 / 594Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekPasek 1.83/Filipek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek—101211131M. Filipek—12146153
LSep 3 · 18:50D. Pasek—8111251M. Filipek—111310113
WMay 24 · 18:55D. Pasek—1112912133M. Filipek—6101114112
D. Pasek10
WSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251WAug 9 · 10:00D. Pasek2.501211123J. Dvorak1.50109100LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek2.509131151J. Kulveit1.5011157113WJun 21 · 10:00D. Pasek1.9151111113D. Vojna1.80115981
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251
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