TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12334091
Played Jul 31Finished
Milan Tlusty
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91111512101311––
Filip Marat
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Tlusty to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Tlusty above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 82 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Milan Tlusty at 58.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Milan Tlusty 14–10 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tlusty
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Tlusty
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tlusty 1546 vs Marat 1470
Tlusty
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tlusty 60% vs Marat 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tlusty 50% vs Marat 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tlusty +1 · Marat -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Tlusty) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTlusty 1.80 / Marat 1.91
Signal prob.60% / 41%
Edge (Tlusty)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12334091
Tlusty1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 107 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 69 of 92
Marat1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back37% 30 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back21% 9 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTlusty7wins
AwayMarat3wins
8 of 10 to a deciderTlusty leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTlusty60%3 of 5
AwayMarat20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tlusty5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Tlusty6Marat4n = 10Tlusty took 6 of 10
S3Tlusty3Marat7n = 10Marat took 7 of 10
S4Tlusty8Marat2n = 10Tlusty took 8 of 10
S5Tlusty5Marat3n = 8Tlusty took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTlustyMaratT − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match49.247.2+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTlustyMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 540 vs 239 / 54253%44.1%286 / 540 vs 239 / 542Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TlustyTlusty 1.80/Marat 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.5%
Tlusty · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 10:24M. Tlusty—512167113F. Marat—1110141172
WJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty—91112133F. Marat—11510111
WJul 21 · 11:20M. Tlusty—117611113F. Marat—51111982
WJul 5 · 19:55M. Tlusty—11101111113F. Marat—91213662
WJun 27 · 14:30M. Tlusty—81318113F. Marat—11111671
LJun 27 · 12:55M. Tlusty—11581182F. Marat—711118113
WJun 14 · 14:25M. Tlusty—1011611113F. Marat—12711872
WJun 14 · 10:55M. Tlusty—1291311113F. Marat—101115652
LJun 9 · 08:25M. Tlusty—16116872F. Marat—1461111113
LApr 18 · 14:29M. Tlusty—911111362F. Marat—1181311113
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 30 · 10:24P. Moravec1.52141110113F. Marat2.351291251WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat1.839101311113A. Kral1.83111211652WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
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