TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12357382
Played Aug 4Finished
Milan Tlusty
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211113311119117
Ondrej Varecka
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Varecka to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Tlusty above · Ondrej Varecka below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 79 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Varecka at 76.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Milan Tlusty 2–9 Ondrej Varecka Milan Tlusty has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Varecka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Varecka
Wrong
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tlusty 1568 vs Varecka 1661
Varecka
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tlusty 80% vs Varecka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tlusty 70% vs Varecka 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tlusty +2 · Varecka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Varecka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tlusty form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTlusty 3.40 / Varecka 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Varecka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12357382
Tlusty3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 49 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back34% 22 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Varecka1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 90 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 65 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTlusty1wins
AwayVarecka9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVarecka leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTlustyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVarecka87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tlusty2Varecka8n = 10Varecka took 8 of 10
S2Tlusty1Varecka9n = 10Varecka took 9 of 10
S3Tlusty3Varecka7n = 10Varecka took 7 of 10
S4Tlusty0Varecka5n = 5Varecka took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricTlustyVareckaT − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match26.837.7−10.9per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTlustyVareckaBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 544 vs 120 / 20253.1%59.4%289 / 544 vs 120 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VareckaTlusty 3.40/Varecka 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.3%
Varecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 10 · 10:09M. Tlusty—911119113O. Varecka—11841182
LJul 10 · 07:55M. Tlusty—85110O. Varecka—1111133
LJul 5 · 22:30M. Tlusty—6450O. Varecka—1111113
LJul 5 · 20:55M. Tlusty—5540O. Varecka—1111113
LJun 29 · 12:25M. Tlusty—941131O. Varecka—11119113
LJun 15 · 11:25M. Tlusty—4650O. Varecka—1111113
LJun 9 · 12:25M. Tlusty—71350O. Varecka—1115113
LJun 9 · 10:15M. Tlusty—116971O. Varecka—91111113
LJun 9 · 07:25M. Tlusty—671221O. Varecka—111110113
LJun 1 · 13:25M. Tlusty—118991O. Varecka—41111113
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
O. Varecka10
LAug 14 · 10:03O. Fiklik1.801012311143O. Varecka1.911210119122LAug 14 · 08:55A. Langer2.381212113O. Varecka1.53101060LAug 14 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.911111123O. Varecka1.8076100LAug 14 · 07:25O. Varecka1.839980V. Jr1.831111113WAug 13 · 14:35M. Sulc1.44117851O. Varecka2.6391111113WAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133WAug 13 · 12:25A. Langer1.53911381O. Varecka2.3811711113LAug 13 · 11:25O. Varecka2.006270M. Sulc1.731111113LAug 12 · 22:30O. Varecka1.601011641D. Sykora2.2012311113WAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113
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