TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12357555
Played Aug 4Finished
David Sykora
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115117––––
Milan Tlusty
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Sykora to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sykora above · Milan Tlusty below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 — our read held David Sykora at 54.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H David Sykora 35–28 Milan Tlusty Milan Tlusty has won 28 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sykora
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-28 in 63
Sykora
Correct
gap of 7 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sykora 1567 vs Tlusty 1580
Tlusty
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sykora 80% vs Tlusty 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sykora 60% vs Tlusty 80%
Tlusty
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sykora +4 · Tlusty +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sykora)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tlusty form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSykora 1.53 / Tlusty 2.38
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Sykora)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12357555
Sykora1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it81% 80 of 99
Tlusty2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 49 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back34% 22 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSykora8wins
AwayTlusty2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSykora leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSykora100%7 of 7
AwayTlusty66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sykora7Tlusty3n = 10Sykora took 7 of 10
S2Sykora5Tlusty5n = 10split evenly
S3Sykora7Tlusty3n = 10Sykora took 7 of 10
S4Sykora5Tlusty1n = 6Sykora took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSykoraTlustyS − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.230.1+6.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSykoraTlustyBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 590 vs 291 / 54754.8%53.2%323 / 590 vs 291 / 547Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SykoraSykora 1.53/Tlusty 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Sykora · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sykora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora—1111113M. Tlusty—5570
LJul 9 · 11:20D. Sykora—6950M. Tlusty—1111113
WJun 29 · 14:30D. Sykora—1111113M. Tlusty—7490
LJun 29 · 13:25D. Sykora—591151M. Tlusty—11119113
WJun 15 · 11:55D. Sykora—11119113M. Tlusty—581171
WJun 9 · 13:25D. Sykora—1111113M. Tlusty—7590
WMay 16 · 07:55D. Sykora—11411113M. Tlusty—811571
WMay 11 · 14:33D. Sykora—1371111113M. Tlusty—15113472
WMay 11 · 10:55D. Sykora—11118113M. Tlusty—781161
WMay 7 · 10:50D. Sykora—11711113M. Tlusty—911861
D. Sykora10
LAug 27 · 14:05J. Vonasek1.671111113D. Sykora2.106370LAug 27 · 12:55A. Langer1.8391111123D. Sykora1.831176101WAug 27 · 12:25J. Vonasek1.50111191192D. Sykora2.50913112113LAug 27 · 11:25D. Sykora1.8031110V. Jr1.911111133WAug 24 · 17:28D. Sykora1.80611118133V. Jr1.91113711112LAug 24 · 16:20D. Sykora1.67541171D. Tichy2.1011114113LAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113WAug 24 · 14:20D. Sykora1.831111113V. Jr1.838780LAug 23 · 18:39M. Sochor1.401111113D. Sykora2.757890WAug 23 · 16:55D. Sykora1.281111113Z. Zahradka3.505850
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
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