TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12357707
Played Aug 4Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711811115411
Milan Tlusty
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Milan Tlusty below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 66.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 2–2 Milan Tlusty Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:16What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1691 vs Tlusty 1581
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Tlusty 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 80% vs Tlusty 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -1 · Tlusty +3
Tlusty
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tlusty form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.44 / Tlusty 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Rek)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12357707
Rek1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 68 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it65% 43 of 66
Tlusty2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 49 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back34% 22 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwayTlusty2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek50%2 of 4
AwayTlustyn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek4Tlusty0n = 4Rek took 4 of 4
S2Rek2Tlusty2n = 4split evenly
S3Rek2Tlusty2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricRekTlustyR − TBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.031.0+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekTlustyBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 481 vs 290 / 54557.2%53.2%275 / 481 vs 290 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.44/Tlusty 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMar 15 · 11:25A. Rek—1311113M. Tlusty—11590
LMar 15 · 09:25A. Rek—111161192M. Tlusty—313113113
WDec 11 · 18:20A. Rek—1111113M. Tlusty—5780
LDec 11 · 15:20A. Rek—117681M. Tlusty—51111113
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871WSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
Upcoming Matches
A. Rek
M. Tlusty
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