TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12355379
Played Aug 3Finished
Milan Tlusty
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1183111012611––
Jakub Dvorak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:46 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMilan Tlusty to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Tlusty above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Milan Tlusty at 54.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Milan Tlusty 13–14 Jakub Dvorak Milan Tlusty has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:46What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tlusty
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tlusty 1557 vs Dvorak 1545
Tlusty
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tlusty 80% vs Dvorak 100%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tlusty 70% vs Dvorak 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tlusty +3 · Dvorak +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Tlusty)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTlusty 1.73 / Dvorak 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Tlusty)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12355379
Tlusty1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 107 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it76% 69 of 91
Dvorak2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 61 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTlusty4wins
AwayDvorak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTlusty75%3 of 4
AwayDvorak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tlusty4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Tlusty5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S3Tlusty3Dvorak7n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S4Tlusty5Dvorak1n = 6Tlusty took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTlustyDvorakT − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.535.5−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTlustyDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 541 vs 162 / 32753.1%49.5%287 / 541 vs 162 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TlustyTlusty 1.73/Dvorak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Tlusty · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 16:20M. Tlusty—1111113J. Dvorak—4880
LJul 22 · 15:50M. Tlusty—2790J. Dvorak—1111113
WJun 14 · 13:25M. Tlusty—11113113J. Dvorak—471181
LMay 16 · 07:25M. Tlusty—912111172J. Dvorak—111467113
WMay 8 · 17:25M. Tlusty—81111113J. Dvorak—117681
LMay 2 · 10:25M. Tlusty—9590J. Dvorak—1111113
LMay 2 · 09:25M. Tlusty—6790J. Dvorak—1111113
LApr 28 · 14:50M. Tlusty—611581J. Dvorak—11711113
WMar 28 · 09:55M. Tlusty—11116113J. Dvorak—751191
LMar 25 · 18:25M. Tlusty—115101342J. Dvorak—8111211113
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Tlusty
Nothing scheduled
J. Dvorak
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