TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12356589
Played Aug 3Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711811––––
Milan Tlusty
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Milan Tlusty below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 15–13 Milan Tlusty Milan Tlusty has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:26What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Tlusty
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1544 vs Tlusty 1555
Tlusty
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 80% vs Tlusty 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 80% vs Tlusty 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Tlusty +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tlusty form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.85 / Tlusty 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12356589
Dvorak1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Tlusty1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak6wins
AwayTlusty4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak83.3%5 of 6
AwayTlusty75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Tlusty4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak5Tlusty5n = 10split evenly
S3Dvorak7Tlusty3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak2Tlusty4n = 6Tlusty took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakTlustyD − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.432.2+2.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakTlustyBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 329 vs 288 / 54349.5%53%163 / 329 vs 288 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.85/Tlusty 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 15:50J. Dvorak—81112113M. Tlusty—1131061
LJul 24 · 16:20J. Dvorak—4880M. Tlusty—1111113
WJul 22 · 15:50J. Dvorak—1111113M. Tlusty—2790
LJun 14 · 13:25J. Dvorak—471181M. Tlusty—11113113
WMay 16 · 07:25J. Dvorak—111467113M. Tlusty—912111172
LMay 8 · 17:25J. Dvorak—117681M. Tlusty—81111113
WMay 2 · 10:25J. Dvorak—1111113M. Tlusty—9590
WMay 2 · 09:25J. Dvorak—1111113M. Tlusty—6790
WApr 28 · 14:50J. Dvorak—11711113M. Tlusty—611581
LMar 28 · 09:55J. Dvorak—751191M. Tlusty—11116113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
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