TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12362927
Played Aug 5Finished
Milan Tlusty
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116811119118––
Robert Jamrich
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Tlusty to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Tlusty above · Robert Jamrich below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Milan Tlusty at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Milan Tlusty 2–1 Robert Jamrich Robert Jamrich has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tlusty
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tlusty 1592 vs Jamrich 1422
Tlusty
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tlusty 80% vs Jamrich 20%
Tlusty
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tlusty 80% vs Jamrich 20%
Tlusty
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tlusty +2 · Jamrich +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tlusty)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jamrich form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTlusty 1.73 / Jamrich 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tlusty)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12362927
Tlusty1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 106 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 69 of 92
Jamrich2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 30 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTlusty2wins
AwayJamrich1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderTlusty leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tlusty2Jamrich1n = 3Tlusty took 2 of 3
S2Tlusty2Jamrich1n = 3Tlusty took 2 of 3
S3Tlusty2Jamrich1n = 3Tlusty took 2 of 3
S4Tlusty2Jamrich1n = 3Tlusty took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricTlustyJamrichT − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.037.3+2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTlustyJamrichBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 550 vs 126 / 27453.5%46%294 / 550 vs 126 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TlustyTlusty 1.73/Jamrich 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tlusty · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty—11811113R. Jamrich—611981
LApr 10 · 12:25M. Tlusty—11114642R. Jamrich—691111113
WJul 29 · 12:25M. Tlusty—101111113R. Jamrich—127561
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
R. Jamrich10
WSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671WSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113WSep 4 · 18:00Z. Zahradka1.6111911592R. Jamrich2.20711811113LSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 15:55R. Jamrich2.1054111172Z. Zahradka1.67111196113LSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113LSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113
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