TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12360865
Played Aug 4Finished
David Sykora
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111179111012––
Milan Tlusty
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Sykora to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Sykora above · Milan Tlusty below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 — our read held David Sykora at 56.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H David Sykora 35–29 Milan Tlusty Milan Tlusty has won 29 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sykora
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-29 in 64
Sykora
Wrong
gap of 6 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sykora 1581 vs Tlusty 1565
Sykora
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sykora 100% vs Tlusty 80%
Sykora
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sykora 70% vs Tlusty 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sykora +5 · Tlusty -1
Sykora
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sykora) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tlusty form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSykora 1.50 / Tlusty 2.50
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Sykora)-7.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12360865
Sykora1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it81% 80 of 99
Tlusty2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 49 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back34% 22 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSykora7wins
AwayTlusty3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSykora leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSykora100%6 of 6
AwayTlusty75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sykora6Tlusty4n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S2Sykora6Tlusty4n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S3Sykora6Tlusty4n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S4Sykora4Tlusty2n = 6Sykora took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSykoraTlustyS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.630.8+4.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSykoraTlustyBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 591 vs 292 / 54854.7%53.3%323 / 591 vs 292 / 548Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SykoraSykora 1.50/Tlusty 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Sykora · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora—4119101M. Tlusty—11711123
WAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora—1111113M. Tlusty—5570
LJul 9 · 11:20D. Sykora—6950M. Tlusty—1111113
WJun 29 · 14:30D. Sykora—1111113M. Tlusty—7490
LJun 29 · 13:25D. Sykora—591151M. Tlusty—11119113
WJun 15 · 11:55D. Sykora—11119113M. Tlusty—581171
WJun 9 · 13:25D. Sykora—1111113M. Tlusty—7590
WMay 16 · 07:55D. Sykora—11411113M. Tlusty—811571
WMay 11 · 14:33D. Sykora—1371111113M. Tlusty—15113472
WMay 11 · 10:55D. Sykora—11118113M. Tlusty—781161
D. Sykora10
LAug 27 · 14:05J. Vonasek1.671111113D. Sykora2.106370LAug 27 · 12:55A. Langer1.8391111123D. Sykora1.831176101WAug 27 · 12:25J. Vonasek1.50111191192D. Sykora2.50913112113LAug 27 · 11:25D. Sykora1.8031110V. Jr1.911111133WAug 24 · 17:28D. Sykora1.80611118133V. Jr1.91113711112LAug 24 · 16:20D. Sykora1.67541171D. Tichy2.1011114113LAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113WAug 24 · 14:20D. Sykora1.831111113V. Jr1.838780LAug 23 · 18:39M. Sochor1.401111113D. Sykora2.757890WAug 23 · 16:55D. Sykora1.281111113Z. Zahradka3.505850
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
Upcoming Matches
D. Sykora
M. Tlusty
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