TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12362126
Played Aug 5Finished
Adam Kral
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311511311411––
Milan Tlusty
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeMilan Tlusty to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Milan Tlusty below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Milan Tlusty at 60.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 25–53 Milan Tlusty Adam Kral has won 25 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Tlusty
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-53 in 78
Tlusty
Correct
gap of 28 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1485 vs Tlusty 1558
Tlusty
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 60% vs Tlusty 80%
Tlusty
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 60% vs Tlusty 80%
Tlusty
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +2 · Tlusty +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Tlusty) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 3.00 / Tlusty 1.36
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Tlusty)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12362126
Kral3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 96 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 64
Tlusty1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 108 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral3wins
AwayTlusty7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTlusty leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral60%3 of 5
AwayTlusty100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral5Tlusty5n = 10split evenly
S2Kral4Tlusty6n = 10Tlusty took 6 of 10
S3Kral3Tlusty7n = 10Tlusty took 7 of 10
S4Kral2Tlusty6n = 8Tlusty took 6 of 8
S5Kral2Tlusty1n = 3Kral took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralTlustyK − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.241.2−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralTlustyBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 799 vs 295 / 55252.2%53.4%417 / 799 vs 295 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TlustyKral 3.00/Tlusty 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Tlusty · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tlusty won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral—135341M. Tlusty—111111113
LAug 3 · 14:20A. Kral—381161M. Tlusty—11119113
LJul 31 · 08:55A. Kral—8850M. Tlusty—1111113
LJul 30 · 12:25A. Kral—9117121M. Tlusty—11811143
WJul 17 · 17:53A. Kral—1110611113M. Tlusty—71211982
WJul 17 · 16:20A. Kral—1111113M. Tlusty—8860
WJul 16 · 17:55A. Kral—151229113M. Tlusty—1310111192
LJul 16 · 14:20A. Kral—881111102M. Tlusty—111166123
LJul 11 · 16:25A. Kral—111110111M. Tlusty—13712133
LJul 5 · 18:55A. Kral—119891M. Tlusty—21111113
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113LAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek2.63111111123M. Tlusty1.441385101WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
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